Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism

From MilcordWiki

Overview

DoD Directive 3000.05 defines Stability Operations as, “civilian and military activities to shape and restore order, ” with the goal to ‘win the peace’. PSIR is a Campaign Design Tool for Stability and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations leaders in making strategic decisions for security, economic and governance and resource allocation plans for essential services.

Need

Stability operations campaign design requires modeling the effect of campaign levers on the desired end states thorough a model of the disparate joint and multinational military units, civilian branches of government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), host nation (HN) governments and forces, and the local populace.

Approach

• Uses a process model based on Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations Field Manuals
• Derives key stability indicators from the multitude of global databases built over decades on governance, economics, and grievances using CKM framework
• Finds the causality between pre-indicators and low-intensity insurgency and civil war onset using by Global Terrorism Database and Uppsala Conflict Data Program data

Benefits

• More effective allocation of CERP (Commander’s Emergency Response Program) and PRT (Provincial Reconstruction Team) budgets
• Risk based operational planning of contingency operations at the Unified Commands

Applications

• Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) operations campaign design

References

• Caglayan, A., Burke, D., Eaton, G., Qamar, S., Caglayan, J., and Cingranelli, D., Regan, P., Bell, S., Frank, R. (2009) “Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR)", AFRL/RIEA Final Report, Rome, NY, January, 2009.
• Guttieri, K. “Unlearning War: U.S. Military Experience with Stability Operations.” In Organizational Learning in the Global Context, edited by Leann Brown, Michael Kenney and Michael Zarkin. London: Ashgate, September 2006.
• Goldstone, J. A. et al, A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability, APSA Annual Meeting, Sep. 2005.
• Cingranelli, D. L., and D. L. Richards. 1999. "Measuring the Pattern, Level, and Sequence of Government Respect for Human Rights” International Studies Quarterly 43: 407-417.