Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism
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(Redirected from PSIR)
Overview
DoD Directive 3000.05 defines Stability Operations as, “civilian and military activities to shape and restore order, ” with the goal to ‘win the peace’. PSIR is a Campaign Design Tool for Stability and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations leaders in making strategic decisions for security, economic and governance and resource allocation plans for essential services.
Need
Stability operations campaign design requires modeling the effect of campaign levers on the desired end states thorough a model of the disparate joint and multinational military units, civilian branches of government, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), host nation (HN) governments and forces, and the local populace.
Approach
- Uses a process model based on Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations Field Manuals
- Derives key stability indicators from the multitude of global databases built over decades on governance, economics, and grievances using CKM framework
- Finds the causality between pre-indicators and low-intensity insurgency and civil war onset using by CIRI Human Rights Data Project, Global Terrorism Database, ITERATE, Minorities at Risk (MAR), Political Instability Task Force, Uppsala Conflict Data Program, World Development Indicators and several other datasets.
Benefits
- More effective allocation of CERP (Commander’s Emergency Response Program) and PRT (Provincial Reconstruction Team) budgets
- Risk based operational planning of contingency operations at the Unified Commands
Applications
- Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction (SSTR) operations campaign design
References
- Stroh, L. Multi Criteria Decision Modeling for Complex Operations milcord blog. July 8, 2010.
- Stroh, L., Caglayan, A., Rashed, T., Burke, D., and Eaton, G., (2010) Geospatial Campaign Management for Complex Operations, 1st International Conference on Cross-Cultural Decision Making, 3rd International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE), July 17-20, 2010, Miami, FL. abstract
- Dustin, B. (2010) Shuffling methodology for sanitizing Afghanistan TCAPF microdata: a working paper, milcord blog. June 30, 2010.
- Rashed, T. (2010) Geospatial Campaign Design for COIN Civil Affairs , First GeoDesign Summit. ESRI, Redlands, CA, Jan. 6-8, 2010.
- Stroh, L. M., Burke, D., Zhao, Y. T., Caglayan, A., (2009) A System Dynamics Model of Counterinsurgency in Southern Afghanistan , 2009 NAACSOS (North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Sciences) Annual Conference, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, October 23-24, 2009. abstract blog
- Stroh, L.M., (2009) The Inheritance, milcord blog. June 18, 2009.
- Caglayan, A., Burke, D., Eaton, G., Qamar, S., Caglayan, J., and Cingranelli, D., Regan, P., Bell, S., Frank, R. (2009) “Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism (PSIR)", AFRL/RIEA Final Report, Rome, NY, January, 2009.
- Guttieri, K. (2006) “Unlearning War: U.S. Military Experience with Stability Operations.” In Organizational Learning in the Global Context, edited by Leann Brown, Michael Kenney and Michael Zarkin. London: Ashgate, September 2006.
- Goldstone, J. A. et al, (2005) A Global Forecasting Model of Political Instability, APSA Annual Meeting, Sep. 2005.
- Cingranelli, D. L., and D. L. Richards. (1999) "Measuring the Pattern, Level, and Sequence of Government Respect for Human Rights” International Studies Quarterly 43: 407-417.
